It was a great pleasure to host Claudia Imperatore for our third VARS. Claudia presented a paper entitled “The effect of private political information on macroeconomic forecast accuracy” – which is available on our repository, co-authored with Andrea Bafundi.
The aim of the paper is to investigate whether access to private political information improves macroeconomic forecast accuracy. “Political information” is referring to information about future economic policies that forecasting houses can obtain through access to policymakers. While access to private political information improves macroeconomic forecast accuracy when policy uncertainty is low, but its benefits weaken as policy uncertainty increases. The paper also documents that forecast errors at the forecasting house level hinder the accuracy of consensus forecasts used in previous studies for predicting corporate profitability, and indirectly induce sub-optimal business decisions.
Claudia presented very clearly and the audience – as always – posed interesting questions and made useful comments.
If you could not attend, the video and slides of the presentation are now available in our repository.
Upcoming VARS are listed on: https://eaa-vars.com/